Amid heightened military clashes, including Indian airstrikes targeting Pakistan’s Neelum-Jhelum hydropower project and cross-border gunfire in Kashmir, India has intensified tensions by suspending a critical water-sharing agreement. Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared India’s intent to halt water flow to Pakistan, redirecting resources for domestic use—a move Pakistan warns would amount to an “act of war.”
The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank, allocated control of the Indus basin’s six rivers between the two nations. While India governs the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), Pakistan relies on the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab), receiving 80% of the basin’s water. The treaty prohibited India from constructing infrastructure that disrupts western river flows, except for limited hydropower and agriculture. Despite past conflicts, India largely adhered to the pact until its suspension in April, citing Pakistan’s alleged involvement in cross-border terrorism—a claim Pakistan denies.
Pakistan’s economy, heavily dependent on agriculture (24% of GDP), is vulnerable to water scarcity. Over 90% of its irrigation and energy production hinges on the Indus basin. Experts warn that India’s revocation of the treaty risks destabilizing Pakistan’s food security and development. While India currently lacks the infrastructure to entirely block water, recent actions—such as reducing Chenab River flow by 90% via the Baglihar dam and plans to manipulate the Kishanganga project—demonstrate its capacity to disrupt supply.
During dry seasons (December–May), restricted flows could cripple Pakistan’s water access, exacerbating shortages. Additionally, India may withhold monsoon flood data, endangering Pakistani communities downstream. Though experts like Himanshu Thakkar note India’s limited ability to fully halt water, strategic reductions during critical periods could inflict severe damage.
The treaty’s suspension marks a dangerous shift in India-Pakistan relations, transforming water into a geopolitical tool. As both nuclear-armed nations escalate hostilities, the international community faces urgent calls to mediate, lest resource warfare deepen one of the world’s most volatile conflicts.
