Guinea’s Simandou iron ore project saw exports surge to 2.2 million tons in May, up from April’s 1.3 million and well above the first quarter’s 0.6 million monthly average, according to Kpler data. This milestone, six months after the first shipment to China, highlights the high-grade mine’s potential to reshape the global market.
Once fully operational, Simandou is expected to ship 120 million tons annually across four blocks—two owned by the Baowu Winning Consortium and two by Rio Tinto’s Simfer joint venture. Dubbed the “Pilbara Killer,” the project has faced challenges including logistics bottlenecks, a worker fatality, and a May strike over pay.
Analysts attribute the recent surge to improving port infrastructure and government pressure on consortia to collaborate more efficiently. Some bauxite assets have been redeployed to support iron ore ramp-up. Forecasts suggest up to 8 million tons in Q3 and 12 million in Q4, though Rio Tinto’s 30-month full-capacity target may be optimistic. The coming wet season will test durability.
The increase comes as China’s steel demand softens and inventories rise. Most exports go to China, but there is no clear evidence yet that high-grade ore is displacing Australian or Brazilian supplies.
